Edmonton monthly real estate market report: It’s like 2009 all over again!
Real estate sales in the Edmonton area were below average in February, and in fact were the lowest we've seen in at least the last 7 years. Looking at the chart below, it's like we've gone back to 2009, only there was no economic meltdown last fall. With reports that Edmonton is the most affordable city in the country, employment is on the rise, and is seeing improved in migration one has to wonder if the chill on sales will continue, and what if any impact the impending interest rate increases will have.
Edmonton real estate sales
Most of the people we are working with are not your fair weather variety of buyers. Looking at homes when the temperature is at or below the -30 degree range is not something people do for s--ts and giggles. I do believe the sales will improve beyond the "siberian lows" as the weather improves. If sales improve beyond 2010 levels is yet to be determined. I don't believe they will for the first quarter but I do think they will be stronger than 2010 level in the remaining quarters. I only put this out there so that people can measure the accuracy of my prognostications.
The average sale price of residential listings increased slightly from $310k to $312,840 in February (down from $317k last February). The median sale price dropped from $307k in January (and last February) to $305,000. The most probable scenario is that we will see the average price rise as the sales increase in the first half of the year.:
Edmonton average home prices
Inventory remains slightly ahead of last year and is increasing as we expected it would, at the end of February there were 6389 residential listings in the Edmonton area. As of today there are 6.12 months worth of inventory making it a buyer's market.
Edmonton homes for sale
The number of new listings are right in line with last year and 2009:
New listings
So what affect will the impending change on amortizations and interest rates have on the Edmonton market? The usual result of these type of changes is a slight spike in sales just before the deadline. In October 2008 when policy changes eliminated the 0 down payment and 40 year amortization there was a slight spike up from August '08. While I don't believe that we will see that much of a jump when we go to a 30 year maximum amortization next month, the spike may be bolstered by buyers who are going to take advantage of their rate holds.
All in all the Edmonton market seems "slow and steady." The majority of sales are in the 300 - 500 thousand range and if there is one indicator I would point to that would suggest an increase in the average price, it is the number of multiple offers we have had in this price range.
Condos Outperform Single Family Homes in Edmonton in February
After months of lack-luster sales and falling prices preliminary figures show that condos performed better in February than single family homes. The average sale price for condos in Edmonton dropped from about $240k in September to $216k in January, but rebounded in February to $230,905. Single family homes meanwhile were unchanged from January at $361,527:
Edmonton real estate prices
On a price per square foot basis both types of properties increased in February - condos went from $215/square foot in January (the lowest its been in two years) to $223/square foot. Meanwhile single family homes sold on average for $250/square foot, up from $248 in January but down from $258 last February:
Edmonton home prices per square foot
Sales of both condos and single family homes were below average and lower than last year, but condos were slightly ahead of the low year of 2009, while single family homes were right on par:
Edmonton Condo Sales
Edmonton home sales
As always, these numbers represent MLS® sales for the city of Edmonton only. When the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton releases their final tallies we will post our monthly report for the greater Edmonton area (likely tomorrow).
Edmonton real estate prices slightly lower in December
The REALTORS® Association of Edmonton released their monthly report on the Edmonton real estate market today and as we were expecting the average residential sale price dropped from $319k in November (and last December) to $308,497 this December. The median price fell after staying at $308,000 for three straight months, to $300,000:
Edmonton Average Residential Price December 2010
“Homebuyers are watching housing prices slide and may attempt to catch the market at the bottom by delaying their purchase but the low point is only evident about three months after it is reached,” said Larry Westergard, President of the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton.
Residential sales in Edmonton were a bit lower than average finishing the month at 784. Street level activity however was higher then I've seen in quite some time, which didn't fully translate to sales but may be an indicator for sales down the road. My assumption based on November and December is that sales should be consistent with 2008 and 2010 for the first quarter of 2011:
Edmonton home sales December 2010
When you break down the sales by type you can see single family home sales in Edmonton held up pretty well for the second half of the year, while condos and sales outside Edmonton were comparatively low. On a side note sales activity is often preceeded by mortgage pre approvals. In a december meeting with Gord McCallum from First Foundation Mortgages he had indicated to us mortgage applications were up for this time of year and so were the quality of the applications. We didn't get into specific numbers but that falls in line with what we are seeing for showings and internet activity on one of our primary search sites - www.EdmontonRealEstate.pro.
Edmonton real estate sales Dec. 2010
We finished out the year with less inventory than 2007 & 2008, but quite a bit more than 2009. The good thing about the present market for buyers is that it has offered plenty of choice and it looks like that should continue in the foreseeable future. Certain areas and price ranges of single family homes especially don't seem to be exhibiting any signs of over supply. :
Edmonton resale homes inventory
Not many home owners decided to bring their homes on the market in December, which is quite typical for this time of year:
Edmonton real estate listings
We can now put the finishing touches on our annual report and 2011 forecast - subscribe today so you don't miss out!
P.S. GO CANADA GO!!!!
Edmonton Real Estate Market Weekly Update
happy new year
Here is our update on the Edmonton real estate market. (Previous week’s numbers are in brackets). For the past 7 days:
New listings: 71 (152, 170, 230)
# Sales: 91 (167, 130, 141)
Ratio: 128% (110%, 76%, 61%)
# Price changes: 29 (77, 79, 135)
# Expired/Off Market Listings: 199 (189, 195, 163)
Net loss/gain in listings this week: -219 (-204, -155, -74)
Active single family home listings: 2009 (2108, 2209, 2311)
Active condo listings: 1322 (1389, 1467, 1498)
Homes 4-week running average: $350k ($359k, $366k, $371k)
Condos 4-week running average: $218k ($225k, $232k, $235k)
It's officially the last weekly update of the year! Sheldon is finishing up our "year in review" blog post as I write this, and once we have the final stats tomorrow we'll start putting the finishing touches on our annual report that goes out by email to subscribers only.
As far as the market goes this week, things look pretty normal. The REALTORS® Association of Edmonton is showing 754 sales so far this month, which is below what I was expecting at the beginning of the month, and slightly below average.
We have received far more requests for information and showings this month than we did all fall, which could be an indicator of heightened activity in the months to come. Our office has certainly been busier than the numbers reflect.
Dec. 31 2010- Weekly listings and sales
The average sale price of single family homes has come down significantly in Edmonton since September. This will certainly be something to keep an eye on. I have not looked at the price per square foot or median sale price yet but will have more information on that in our monthly post and annual report.
December 31 2010 Average sale price
You will also notice we have added a new rating system to the blog. We hope you will provide your feedback on the articles we post - we will be listening and hope to be able to provide more of what our readers like and less of what you don't. We also have added a "thumbs up/thumbs down" to the comments - so far we have had one commenter indicate they didn't like it - please let us know what you think.
And as they say in Ireland: this new year, may your right hand always be stretched out in friendship, never in want.
Happy New Year!
Edmonton Real Estate Market Weekly Update – Dec. 17/10
Edmonton Real Estate Market Update
Here is our update on the Edmonton real estate market. (Previous week’s numbers are in brackets). For the past 7 days:
New listings: 170 (230, 211, 250)
# Sales: 130 (141, 192, 203)
Ratio: 76% (61%, 91%, 81%)
# Price changes: 79 (135, 158, 180)
# Expired/Off Market Listings: 195 (163, 443, 153)
Net loss/gain in listings this week: -155 (-74, -424, -106)
Active single family home listings: 2209 (2311, 2337, 2600)
Active condo listings: 1467 (1498, 1513, 1640)
Homes 4-week running average: $366k ($371k, $377k, $367k)
Condos 4-week running average: $232k ($235k, $230k, $223k)
The Edmonton real estate market is definitely winding down for 2010. Sheldon and I have already started on our annual report that will be sent to subscribers early in the new year. Preliminary findings show 2011 should be better than 2010 for sales, but the market likely won't pick up until the second half of the year.
Dec1710Weekly
Dec1710Average
Have a great weekend!
Edmonton Real Estate Market Weekly Update – Dec. 10/10
Edmonton Real Estate Market Update
Here is our update on the Edmonton real estate market. (Previous week’s numbers are in brackets). For the past 7 days:
New listings: 230 (211, 250, 290)
# Sales: 141 (192, 203, 204)
Ratio: 61% (91%, 81%, 70%)
# Price changes: 135 (158, 180, 220)
# Expired/Off Market Listings: 163 (443, 153, 216)
Net loss/gain in listings this week: -74 (-424, -106, -130)
Active single family home listings: 2311 (2337, 2600, 2664)
Active condo listings: 1498 (1513, 1640, 1668)
Homes 4-week running average: $371k ($377k, $367k, $362k)
Condos 4-week running average: $235k ($230k, $223k, $225k)
Interesting that new listings actually increased this week, we typically see falling sales and listings at this time of year. At the same time in 2007, there were 319 new listings, 207 sales and a 65% ratio. In 2008 there were 255 new listings, 119 sales and a 47% ratio and in 2009 there were 188 new listings, 202 sales and a 107% ratio.
Happy weekend!
Buyers Take Advantage of Lower Prices in Edmonton
The REALTORS® Association of Edmonton released the November sales stats for Edmonton earlier today saying:
“Softening prices, a dip in interest rates, increasing sales nationally and excess local inventory all contributed to a month-over-month sales bump,” said Larry Westergard, president of the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton. “Housing affordability in Edmonton is lower than the national average and economic growth in Alberta is expected to exceed other parts of the country...All the indicators suggest that an increase in real estate sales is right around the corner.”
The residential median sale price stayed the same as October at $308,000 while the average increased slightly from $317k to $$319,479 in November. The average price of a single family detached home fell to $362,657, which was half a percent lower in than October and 2.5% lower than last November. Condo prices also took one of the biggest drops this year with the average price down 2% to $229,603 month-over-month and just under 3% year-over-year. An increase in other property types, such as duplexes and townhomes accounted for the overall increase.
The absorption rate dropped from 7.15 to 6.23 in November (the absorption rate tells us how many months it would take to sell the current inventory at the current rate of sales). There has been much debate about the absorption rate on this blog in the past, which is why I stopped posting it, but I decided to bring it back this month. The debate stemmed around what rate is considered a buyer's market, and what is considered a seller's market so I kept it as an approximate range this time around. Hopefully this will allow us to focus on the trend rather than definitions - the absorption rate has been generally increasing since May of 2009 and now appears to be on the decline.
Inventory is also dropping, which is quite normal for this time of year. The inventory is still above the normal range and will likely start at a higher point in 2011 than it did in 2010. The average inventory so far this year is 7666 and well ahead of last year, it is second only to 2008 when it was over 9000 listings (I will include the annual average in our yearly report that will go out to subscribers in the new year).
New listings in November were right in the normal range, and once again shows that the higher than normal inventory is due more to lower sales than higher listings.
All in all it is an interesting time in Edmonton and it makes it extremely hard to predict what is coming. We actually attended a stats course at the board this morning and got some great ideas for new ways to look at the market that we will share with you soon.
Cooler Real Estate Prices in Edmonton Still Up From Last Year
The REALTORS® Association of Edmonton released the stats for real estate sales in July today showing that housing prices cooled in July. Single family dwelling prices slid 3.1% while condo prices were down a marginal 1.5% and the overall residential average price dropped 1.7% to $329,734 from $335k last month. The overall median sale price was almost unchanged at $313,000 compared to $315,000 last month. This suggests that lower luxury sales affected the overage average as we suspected when we reported our numbers on Monday.
"The number of homes in the inventory is giving buyers' choice," said Larry Westergard, president of the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton. "As a result many buyers are taking their time and prices are beginning to soften slightly. At the same time, some sellers who have been standing firm have been pushed to discount their initial list price."
Although inventory of homes and condos within the city limits is still creeping up, the inventory for the board as a whole dropped to 8,892 residential properties.
New listings were off 15% from last month and 3.3% from last July and are falling back into the "normal" range.
As we discussed last month, the Association has made efforts to improve the accuracy of our stats; some sales are reported after the stats are released so the Association now goes back and corrects the numbers. For example, last month when the press release came out 1539 sales were reported for June, and this month the numbers show 1741 for June. I've decided to show both the reported numbers and the adjusted numbers in my chart, with a projected number for July so we can compare apples to apples. No matter how you look at it, we saw very low sales in July:
From our perspective this inversion of sales is mainly related to a significant amount of demand moving forward in 2009 to take advantage of lower interest rates. On June 17th this year we suggested people get "ready for the headlines", where we basically outlined there would be lower sales. Some people see the current trend as a race for the bottom while I have perhaps a slightly different take. I saw one comment on our blog who compared us to Florida. I mean come on, Flordia? Not even close. Our inventory levels are not that out of line and compared to other markets our lending practises and economic fundamentals are extremely different.
Anyway, in regards to the number of homes for sale... If seasonal trends hold true to form we will see inventory soften for the rest of the year, the question is "by how much?" With the sales at these levels a drop in listings will mainly be precipatated by expired listings or people just taking their properties off of the market. I'd like to know when demand will normalize. If the inversion principle holds then September / October will see more normalized sales and then you will see headlines saying how "sales are 15% higher than last year" and so on. One thing I have certainly cautioned my sellers on is that if you do see a lower offer than you normally would have considered, I wouldn't discount it without a good hard look at the overall fundamentals.
Edmonton sees slow real estate market in July
We've been tracking low sales and high inventory in Edmonton for a few months now, wondering when prices would be affected. It looks like prices have finally taken a hit this month, and a pretty big one at that. The average sale price of single family homes in Edmonton in July was $388,549 down from $397k in June and $400k in May. Condos were not hit as hard and sat at $237,112 in July down from $239k in June and $246 in May.
The decrease in average sale price was partially due to lower luxury sales - 18 homes over $750k sold in July compared to 28 in June. There seems to be a lot of bargain shoppers out there right now as many offers are being written but few sellers want to lower their expectations to buyer's levels. In turn many home owners are opting to take their homes off the market and wait for a better market.
On a price per square foot basis condos actually improved from $232/square foot in June to $234 while single family homes decreased from $269/square foot to $264.
It is not unusual for condos to outperform single family homes at this time of year. Most families want to be moved into new their homes before the new school year starts, while many parents of college aged kids are out shopping for condos for them to live in while at school.
As always, these numbers are for the city of Edmonton only, when the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton releases the final monthly numbers in a couple of days we'll have our final monthly report for the greater Edmonton area.
Edmonton Real Estate Market Weekly Update – June 25, 2010
Edmonton Real Estate Market Update
Here is our update on the Edmonton real estate market. (Previous week’s numbers are in brackets). For the past 7 days:
New listings: 467 (560, 599, 594)
# Sales: 255 (262, 271, 245)
Ratio: 55% (47%, 45%, 41%)
# Price changes: 400 (413, 421, 412)
# Expired/Off Market Listings: 170 (212, 173, 302)
Net loss/gain in listings this week: 42 (86, 155, 47)
Active listings for single family homes: 3289 (3259, 3185, 3083)
Active listings for condos: 2262 (2249, 2212, 2151)
New listings are finally slowing down, just in time for summer holidays. Inventory just might drop next week for the first time this year, as a lot of listings will likely expired on June 30.
The REALTORS® Association of Edmonton is reporting 1386 sales so far this month, which should put us around 1700 for the month (below average). The average residential sale price sits at $340k (up $1k from last week and last month), single family homes at $387k and condos at $248k (both up from last week and about the same as last month).
Have a great weekend, and a warm welcome to Edmonton for Taylor/Tyler 